After a long period of long and short moves in the fourth quarter of 2017, the 2018 New Year started again with a good start. Domestic petrochemical companies, in conjunction with the surge of linear futures, have successively raised the ex factory/ex warehouse prices, driving the market up again. This rise lasted only two days and then fell silent again. For the market in the first quarter of 2018, there are heavy differences between the long and short market. The author believes that three good points will play an important role in supporting the current price level, or it is expected to slowly push up the market in the first quarter.

First, the petrochemical inventory is low. After a quarter long long haul, the domestic petrochemical inventory has not accumulated too much. Although speculative demand has always been tepid and the market speculation atmosphere is weak, rigid demand should be said to be OK, and arbitrage demand as a part of speculative demand is still active. The first quarter is approaching the Spring Festival holiday, and downstream factories will have holidays one after another, which will affect the periodic demand. However, it should also be noted that the plastic film production in the north will start one after another, and the main production peak of plastic film and plastic film in spring is coming. In addition, the low inventory at the downstream end is also a potential benefit.

Second, the cost support is stronger, and crude oil has the momentum to continue to rise. First of all, due to the cold weather in Mexico, four major crude oil export ports have been closed on Monday. Therefore, the import volume of the United States may decline, and with the high operating rate of American refineries, the inventory of the United States will continue to decline. Secondly, the recent sharp drop in the dollar index has supported commodity prices, which is expected to remain in the short term. After Zui, the domestic situation in Iran was turbulent. Although it did not affect exports in the short term, the expectation of geographic warming would support oil prices.

Third, there are many rainy and snowy days in winter. In addition to the impact of spring transportation, the transportation cost may increase. With the expansion of coal chemical industry, the northwest and northeast occupy large production capacity, while the main consumption areas are still concentrated in North China, East China and South China. The impact of logistics costs cannot be ignored.

The above three points are good, or the downward space of the market in the first quarter of 2018 is limited, and the possibility of slowly pushing up is increased. Considering the Spring Festival holiday and the terminal's weak acceptance of high prices, the increase will be limited, and the linearity is expected to be supported at 9300 yuan/ton. Focus on the stock accumulation of Sinopec during the Spring Festival.